Post by AstrosGM on Aug 11, 2022 13:55:27 GMT -6
2022 Top Prospects:
1. Bobby Witt JR, SS, 21, AAA
He is the Royals’ top prospect and one (if not #1) of the top two prospects in all of baseball. Witt Jr. keeps on raking at every level he plays at. In 2021, Witt produced a .285/.352/.581 with 17 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He has a great shot of hitting 25/25 at the MLB level but it will come with some strikeouts and a modest batting average.
1. Pedro Leon, OF/SS, 23, AAA
The Astros’ biggest international signing, Leon showed all five tools in his first season stateside. Scouts agree that his defensive flexibility between CF & SS makes Leon even more valuable to Houston’s future success. He will need to continue making adjustments but the talent is evident.
2. Garrett Mitchell, OF, 23, AA (MIL)
Mitchell got off to a hot start in High-A Wisconsin, earning a quick promotion to Double-A. There, he dealt with some nagging injuries and a non-covid illness that impacted his playing time. Still, Mitchell is as talented as they come and he was tapping into his raw power last season a little bit. He’ll have to stay healthy in 2022 and prove he can crush Double-A pitching to stay on that fast track to the big leagues.
2. Jeremy Pena, SS, 24, AAA
A fluid, highly competent defender, Pena came back from a wrist injury to play the last month of the season at AAA. He demonstrated added strength and power, becoming more of a dynamic threat at SS. Peña continued showing his renewed health in the winter, playing in 5 LIDOM games. With the Correa-sized hole at SS, it’s almost a guarantee Peńa gets first crack at filling it. Expect spring training to be his time to earn the Astros’ starting job.
3. Dillon Dingler, C, 23, AA (DET)
The 38th overall pick in 2020 (from some school south of Michigan), Dingler had an encouraging 2021. Dingler saw games at three different levels, being promoted for stellar defense and offense each time. The team signing Tucker Barnhart to be the everyday catcher in Detroit should not impact Dingler’s continued climb through the organization.
4. Hunter Brown, RHP, 23, AAA
Brown’s upside is more limited than his ranking would indicate. Since joining the Astros, his curveball has become more refined, while he still throws the 2 & 4 seam fastballs that first got him noticed. Hard contact remains his bugaboo and reliever risk remains in his profile.
6. Colton Cowser, OF, 21, Low-A (BAL)
The 5th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Cowser thoroughly impressed in his 32-game debut. Cowser showed an advanced feel for the strike zone, walking 16.8% of his plate appearances while only striking out 15.4% of the time and while his small sample didn’t show much power, I think he can easily top 20 HR in the future.
6. Zack Thompson, LHP, 24, AAA (STL)
Thompson didn’t fair very well in Triple-A last season. He finished with a 2-10 record and a large 7.06 ERA. Although Thompson seems more and more like a reliever each day, he was a starter most of the season. He played in the Arizona Fall League and was much better as a reliever, winning 3 games, and recorded a minuscule 1.56 ERA with an 11.4 K/9.
7. Tink Hence, RHP, 19, Rookie (STL)
In 2021, Hence ended up pitching in only 8.0 innings in Rookie ball. He did manage to get 14 strikeouts in those 8.0 innings. But on the negative side of things, he also gave up 8 ER and had a 9.00 ERA. Still lots of talent and such a young player, watch for him in the future, because he will improve greatly and be a potential stud bullpen arm.
7. Shay Whitcomb, SS, 23, High-A
Whitcomb showed a slightly unexpected power stroke in his first pro season, clubbing a total of 23 HRs and 25 doubles across two levels, including 16 HRs/22 doubles in High A. Along with hitting for power, he posted .296/.366/.534 combined line. There are still reasons to foresee struggles for Whitcomb as he struck out at a 30.2% clip and pulls the ball above 50% but there’s some underlying skills that could blossom with another year of development in the Astros organization.
8. Misael Tamarez, RHP, 21, High-A
Another explosive arm without an exact role, Tamarez set Low & High-A ablaze with an effective arsenal of 95+ fastball to go with a change and a slurve. The numbers point to a potential breakout (103Ks in 76.2IP total) for the Astros; if he can refine the shape of his breaking ball then Tamarez could follow Cristian Javier’s development path as a power MIRP.
9. J.C. Correa, SS, 23, High-A
An aggressive ranking? Perhaps but the younger Correa showed a mature approach in his first pro season, combining for 9 HRs and a .368 OBP across A/A+ ball.
10. Shawn Dubin, RHP, 26, AAA
Two good pitches and one potentially great pitch, Dubin projects to be an efficient short inning guy that racks up Ks. His slider is being debated as 70 grade while the sudden burst in his delivery makes his mid-90s fastball and mid 80s curve play up even faster. His last 10 appearances? 42:12 K:BB in 28.1 IP with only 7 earned runs.
10. Luken Baker, 1B, 24, AAA (STL)
Baker simply crushed in 2021. Pretty much all of his at bats were at the Double-A level, but he did get 6 AB in Triple-A. Baker erupted with 26 home runs and 70 RBI. His average wasn’t great at only .249, and he does strikeout quite a bit. But if he’s going to keep up hitting this many home runs, the average can sit on the back burner and almost go unnoticed.
10. Jackson Kowar, RHP, 25, MLB (KC)
Kowar got a shot with the Royals last season but finished 0-6 with an 11.27 ERA in only 30 IP. He needs to get his control issues under wraps if he wants to be serviceable in the future.
11. Freudis Nova, SS, 21, High-A
Nova still has all of the tools that made him sought after as a J2 signing in 2016 including a 70 grade arm. However, Nova still is very raw, with an aggressive plate approach that lead to a 32.5% K rate. A torn ACL in September ended his season and could be a setback in his development for 2022.
12. Joe Perez, 3B, 22, AA
Perez has effortless power to all fields and quickly moved through 3 levels in 2021, finishing in Double-A Corpus Christi. He combined for 18 HRs and 34 doubles while keeping his K rate around 23% as a 22-year-old. Perez will need to continue developing his bat but he has the potential to be an everyday major leaguer.
13. Jonathan Bermudez, LHP, 26, AAA
Bermudez will get dinged because of his low velo stuff and being slightly old for the level at certain stops of his career. But the command & control seems legit at this point (HR/9 under 1 with a K:BB of 4.06). He has simple, balanced mechanics with some expected deception as a lefty. Bermudez should get his chance with the Astros sometime in 2022.
16. Cristian Gonzalez, SS, 20, Low-A
Super high-ceiling alert! Already 6’3, Gonzalez seems sure to grow into his frame in the years to come. His carrying tool right now is his arm which makes a potential move to 3B less of a risk. He’s able to impact balls with simple swing mechanics that shouldn’t need much tweaking. Gonzalez quickly moved from rookie ball to Low A in 2021; a full season in Fayetteville should help refine his skills.
17. Brayan Medina, RHP, 19, Rookie (SD)
His stuff is electric for a teenager and there are encouraging peripherals here as well. Potential to be a top of the rotation arm, but obviously is very far off.
17. Peter Solomon, RHP, 25, MLB
As he was already set for recovery from TJS, Solomon found himself able to find some benefit from 2020’s canceled minor league season. Solomon has a starter’s repertoire & clean, repeatable mechanics; his season was productive enough to be named Triple-A West Pitcher of the Year. Scouting reports seem to be split: some see a low leverage reliever while others still believe he can start. 2022 could be the season to determine Solomon’s future.
18. Matthew Barefoot, OF, 24, AA
It took a while for Barefoot’s career to take off after a disastrous 2019 and missed a year in 2020. 2021 brought a noticeably quieter stance/swing leading to admirable results in Low & High A with a combined .301/.354/.571 slashline. However, upon being promoted to AA, Barefoot suffered a severe decrease in production (.175/.226/.299 in 36 games). Instead of mid-season promotions, Barefoot may need a full season to adjust to the upper levels,s but there’s still enough talent to be intriguing.
19. Tyler Ivey, RHP, 25, AAA
Take a drink every time you see “Tyler Ivey” and “violent head whack” in the same sentence (Drink!). Every scouting report points out Ivey’s suboptimal mechanics but a four-pitch mix along with high spin rates have kept him high on Astros’ rankings for the past two years. His season was ended shortly after making his major league debut due to thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) and a sprained UCL.
20. Russell Smith, LHP, 23, A (MIL)
Smith was Milwaukee’s 2nd round pick in 2021 but didn’t pitch in any official games after getting selected. The 6’9″ lefty has a fastball that plays up, despite its less than stellar velocity. Smith has great control of the strike zone, especially for such a large pitcher and the Brewers have a history of successfully developing pitchers with his kind of profile.
Tier 4
21. Justin Dirden, OF, 24, High-A
22. Jaime Melendez, RHP, 20, AA
23. Grae Kessinger, 2B/SS, 24, AA
24. Jimmy Endersby, RHP, 23, AA
25. Enmanuel Valdez, 2B/3B, 23, AA
26. Jojanse Torres, RHP, 26, AAA
27. Jonathan Sprinkle, RHP, 23, AA
28. J.P. France, RHP, 26, AAA
An undrafted FA, Dirden produced a similar, if not better, 2021 season between Fayetteville & Asheville compared to Barefoot…..Melendez was effective in using a low release point and an advanced ability for tunneling his breaking balls off of his fastball to freeze hitters at the A/A+ level…..Kessinger showed some life currently in the Arizona Fall League (18/65 with 2 HRs) while mostly manning first base…..A converted infielder, Endersby has a decent fastball with some rise to it to go with a couple of average secondary pitches…..Valdez’s swing has begun to generate more loft (49% FB, 26 combined HRs), he could continue creating more power in 2022…..After dominating at age-appropriate Low A, Sprinkle was promoted to High A where he met some actual resistance (5.96 ERA) but still managed incredible strikeout numbers (25.3% SwStr & 39.4% CSW).
Tier 5
29. Dauri Lorenzo, SS, 19, Rookie (FCL)
30. Jordan Brewer, OF, 24, Low-A
31. Yohander Martinez, SS, 19, Low-A
32. Brett Conine, RHP, 25, AAA
33. Zach Daniels, OF, 22, High-A
34. Angel Macuare, RHP, 21, AA
35. Richi Gonzalez, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)
36. Alex McKenna, OF, 24, AA
37. Jairo Lopez, RHP, 21, Low-A
38. Chayce McDermott, RHP, 23, Low-A
41. Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, 24, Low-A
42. Austin Hansen, RHP, 25, AAA
44. Tyler Brown, RHP, 23, AA
45. Leosdani Molina, SS, 21, Rookie (DSL)
46. Julio Robaina, LHP, 20, High-A
48. Blair Henley, RHP, 24, High-A
49. Jairo Solis, RHP, 22, Low-A
50. Valente Bellozo, RHP, 21, Low-A
1. Bobby Witt JR, SS, 21, AAA
He is the Royals’ top prospect and one (if not #1) of the top two prospects in all of baseball. Witt Jr. keeps on raking at every level he plays at. In 2021, Witt produced a .285/.352/.581 with 17 home runs and 15 stolen bases. He has a great shot of hitting 25/25 at the MLB level but it will come with some strikeouts and a modest batting average.
1. Pedro Leon, OF/SS, 23, AAA
The Astros’ biggest international signing, Leon showed all five tools in his first season stateside. Scouts agree that his defensive flexibility between CF & SS makes Leon even more valuable to Houston’s future success. He will need to continue making adjustments but the talent is evident.
2. Garrett Mitchell, OF, 23, AA (MIL)
Mitchell got off to a hot start in High-A Wisconsin, earning a quick promotion to Double-A. There, he dealt with some nagging injuries and a non-covid illness that impacted his playing time. Still, Mitchell is as talented as they come and he was tapping into his raw power last season a little bit. He’ll have to stay healthy in 2022 and prove he can crush Double-A pitching to stay on that fast track to the big leagues.
2. Jeremy Pena, SS, 24, AAA
A fluid, highly competent defender, Pena came back from a wrist injury to play the last month of the season at AAA. He demonstrated added strength and power, becoming more of a dynamic threat at SS. Peña continued showing his renewed health in the winter, playing in 5 LIDOM games. With the Correa-sized hole at SS, it’s almost a guarantee Peńa gets first crack at filling it. Expect spring training to be his time to earn the Astros’ starting job.
3. Dillon Dingler, C, 23, AA (DET)
The 38th overall pick in 2020 (from some school south of Michigan), Dingler had an encouraging 2021. Dingler saw games at three different levels, being promoted for stellar defense and offense each time. The team signing Tucker Barnhart to be the everyday catcher in Detroit should not impact Dingler’s continued climb through the organization.
4. Hunter Brown, RHP, 23, AAA
Brown’s upside is more limited than his ranking would indicate. Since joining the Astros, his curveball has become more refined, while he still throws the 2 & 4 seam fastballs that first got him noticed. Hard contact remains his bugaboo and reliever risk remains in his profile.
6. Colton Cowser, OF, 21, Low-A (BAL)
The 5th overall pick in the 2021 draft, Cowser thoroughly impressed in his 32-game debut. Cowser showed an advanced feel for the strike zone, walking 16.8% of his plate appearances while only striking out 15.4% of the time and while his small sample didn’t show much power, I think he can easily top 20 HR in the future.
6. Zack Thompson, LHP, 24, AAA (STL)
Thompson didn’t fair very well in Triple-A last season. He finished with a 2-10 record and a large 7.06 ERA. Although Thompson seems more and more like a reliever each day, he was a starter most of the season. He played in the Arizona Fall League and was much better as a reliever, winning 3 games, and recorded a minuscule 1.56 ERA with an 11.4 K/9.
7. Tink Hence, RHP, 19, Rookie (STL)
In 2021, Hence ended up pitching in only 8.0 innings in Rookie ball. He did manage to get 14 strikeouts in those 8.0 innings. But on the negative side of things, he also gave up 8 ER and had a 9.00 ERA. Still lots of talent and such a young player, watch for him in the future, because he will improve greatly and be a potential stud bullpen arm.
7. Shay Whitcomb, SS, 23, High-A
Whitcomb showed a slightly unexpected power stroke in his first pro season, clubbing a total of 23 HRs and 25 doubles across two levels, including 16 HRs/22 doubles in High A. Along with hitting for power, he posted .296/.366/.534 combined line. There are still reasons to foresee struggles for Whitcomb as he struck out at a 30.2% clip and pulls the ball above 50% but there’s some underlying skills that could blossom with another year of development in the Astros organization.
8. Misael Tamarez, RHP, 21, High-A
Another explosive arm without an exact role, Tamarez set Low & High-A ablaze with an effective arsenal of 95+ fastball to go with a change and a slurve. The numbers point to a potential breakout (103Ks in 76.2IP total) for the Astros; if he can refine the shape of his breaking ball then Tamarez could follow Cristian Javier’s development path as a power MIRP.
9. J.C. Correa, SS, 23, High-A
An aggressive ranking? Perhaps but the younger Correa showed a mature approach in his first pro season, combining for 9 HRs and a .368 OBP across A/A+ ball.
10. Shawn Dubin, RHP, 26, AAA
Two good pitches and one potentially great pitch, Dubin projects to be an efficient short inning guy that racks up Ks. His slider is being debated as 70 grade while the sudden burst in his delivery makes his mid-90s fastball and mid 80s curve play up even faster. His last 10 appearances? 42:12 K:BB in 28.1 IP with only 7 earned runs.
10. Luken Baker, 1B, 24, AAA (STL)
Baker simply crushed in 2021. Pretty much all of his at bats were at the Double-A level, but he did get 6 AB in Triple-A. Baker erupted with 26 home runs and 70 RBI. His average wasn’t great at only .249, and he does strikeout quite a bit. But if he’s going to keep up hitting this many home runs, the average can sit on the back burner and almost go unnoticed.
10. Jackson Kowar, RHP, 25, MLB (KC)
Kowar got a shot with the Royals last season but finished 0-6 with an 11.27 ERA in only 30 IP. He needs to get his control issues under wraps if he wants to be serviceable in the future.
11. Freudis Nova, SS, 21, High-A
Nova still has all of the tools that made him sought after as a J2 signing in 2016 including a 70 grade arm. However, Nova still is very raw, with an aggressive plate approach that lead to a 32.5% K rate. A torn ACL in September ended his season and could be a setback in his development for 2022.
12. Joe Perez, 3B, 22, AA
Perez has effortless power to all fields and quickly moved through 3 levels in 2021, finishing in Double-A Corpus Christi. He combined for 18 HRs and 34 doubles while keeping his K rate around 23% as a 22-year-old. Perez will need to continue developing his bat but he has the potential to be an everyday major leaguer.
13. Jonathan Bermudez, LHP, 26, AAA
Bermudez will get dinged because of his low velo stuff and being slightly old for the level at certain stops of his career. But the command & control seems legit at this point (HR/9 under 1 with a K:BB of 4.06). He has simple, balanced mechanics with some expected deception as a lefty. Bermudez should get his chance with the Astros sometime in 2022.
16. Cristian Gonzalez, SS, 20, Low-A
Super high-ceiling alert! Already 6’3, Gonzalez seems sure to grow into his frame in the years to come. His carrying tool right now is his arm which makes a potential move to 3B less of a risk. He’s able to impact balls with simple swing mechanics that shouldn’t need much tweaking. Gonzalez quickly moved from rookie ball to Low A in 2021; a full season in Fayetteville should help refine his skills.
17. Brayan Medina, RHP, 19, Rookie (SD)
His stuff is electric for a teenager and there are encouraging peripherals here as well. Potential to be a top of the rotation arm, but obviously is very far off.
17. Peter Solomon, RHP, 25, MLB
As he was already set for recovery from TJS, Solomon found himself able to find some benefit from 2020’s canceled minor league season. Solomon has a starter’s repertoire & clean, repeatable mechanics; his season was productive enough to be named Triple-A West Pitcher of the Year. Scouting reports seem to be split: some see a low leverage reliever while others still believe he can start. 2022 could be the season to determine Solomon’s future.
18. Matthew Barefoot, OF, 24, AA
It took a while for Barefoot’s career to take off after a disastrous 2019 and missed a year in 2020. 2021 brought a noticeably quieter stance/swing leading to admirable results in Low & High A with a combined .301/.354/.571 slashline. However, upon being promoted to AA, Barefoot suffered a severe decrease in production (.175/.226/.299 in 36 games). Instead of mid-season promotions, Barefoot may need a full season to adjust to the upper levels,s but there’s still enough talent to be intriguing.
19. Tyler Ivey, RHP, 25, AAA
Take a drink every time you see “Tyler Ivey” and “violent head whack” in the same sentence (Drink!). Every scouting report points out Ivey’s suboptimal mechanics but a four-pitch mix along with high spin rates have kept him high on Astros’ rankings for the past two years. His season was ended shortly after making his major league debut due to thoracic outlet syndrome (TOS) and a sprained UCL.
20. Russell Smith, LHP, 23, A (MIL)
Smith was Milwaukee’s 2nd round pick in 2021 but didn’t pitch in any official games after getting selected. The 6’9″ lefty has a fastball that plays up, despite its less than stellar velocity. Smith has great control of the strike zone, especially for such a large pitcher and the Brewers have a history of successfully developing pitchers with his kind of profile.
Tier 4
21. Justin Dirden, OF, 24, High-A
22. Jaime Melendez, RHP, 20, AA
23. Grae Kessinger, 2B/SS, 24, AA
24. Jimmy Endersby, RHP, 23, AA
25. Enmanuel Valdez, 2B/3B, 23, AA
26. Jojanse Torres, RHP, 26, AAA
27. Jonathan Sprinkle, RHP, 23, AA
28. J.P. France, RHP, 26, AAA
An undrafted FA, Dirden produced a similar, if not better, 2021 season between Fayetteville & Asheville compared to Barefoot…..Melendez was effective in using a low release point and an advanced ability for tunneling his breaking balls off of his fastball to freeze hitters at the A/A+ level…..Kessinger showed some life currently in the Arizona Fall League (18/65 with 2 HRs) while mostly manning first base…..A converted infielder, Endersby has a decent fastball with some rise to it to go with a couple of average secondary pitches…..Valdez’s swing has begun to generate more loft (49% FB, 26 combined HRs), he could continue creating more power in 2022…..After dominating at age-appropriate Low A, Sprinkle was promoted to High A where he met some actual resistance (5.96 ERA) but still managed incredible strikeout numbers (25.3% SwStr & 39.4% CSW).
Tier 5
29. Dauri Lorenzo, SS, 19, Rookie (FCL)
30. Jordan Brewer, OF, 24, Low-A
31. Yohander Martinez, SS, 19, Low-A
32. Brett Conine, RHP, 25, AAA
33. Zach Daniels, OF, 22, High-A
34. Angel Macuare, RHP, 21, AA
35. Richi Gonzalez, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)
36. Alex McKenna, OF, 24, AA
37. Jairo Lopez, RHP, 21, Low-A
38. Chayce McDermott, RHP, 23, Low-A
41. Jose Alberto Rivera, RHP, 24, Low-A
42. Austin Hansen, RHP, 25, AAA
44. Tyler Brown, RHP, 23, AA
45. Leosdani Molina, SS, 21, Rookie (DSL)
46. Julio Robaina, LHP, 20, High-A
48. Blair Henley, RHP, 24, High-A
49. Jairo Solis, RHP, 22, Low-A
50. Valente Bellozo, RHP, 21, Low-A