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Post by RaysGM on Feb 3, 2018 17:00:41 GMT -6
Current Deal: OF Mike Trout $300,000 (2017)
Offer: OF Mike Trout $13,000,000 (2022)
few data points im looking at: Machado with ss/3b eligibility likely and 1 year younger going at $12 mil. Goldschmidt thread last year asked for $12 mil by Tab, he is a top 3 guy along with Trout. Trout ranks a little ahead of both, so going higher. Contract going to age 31 season, usually a steep drop off for physical OF's like this in their 30's, but worth it on the front end.
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Post by metsgm on Feb 3, 2018 18:18:18 GMT -6
Well I guess Im the heel, not trying to be a pain in the ass but this exercise is about setting values for future re-signs. Trout is the best player on earth. He's 26. See Altuve's thread for a good comp and also Miguel Cabrera. Goldschmidt (in my opinion) was underpaid. If Altuve got $15 and 5 so should Trout (and Goldy)
deny 1
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Post by NY Yankees GM (Jerry) on Feb 3, 2018 19:01:59 GMT -6
Last year it seemed like all resigns (other than Altuve) were a bit below the standard wage, not sure why but if you look across the board of resigns you will see it.
Based on notes for Altuve I must agree that Trout should be comparable to him.
Deny #2
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Post by RaysGM on Feb 3, 2018 19:38:59 GMT -6
Why in the world would you say the above statements on Trout and Rizzo while also approving Machado and Goldy? How am I now the guy who has to fix past bad decisions by the Tab? How do you compare a 2B to an OF? What other OF has ever gotten more than I’m offering? Sorry, but I can’t hamstring my roster here, but also can’t let these guys go. I made strong offers given position eligibility and the market, I need better and more detailed feedback than something along the lines of ....it doesn’t feel right.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 3, 2018 20:14:36 GMT -6
Why in the world would you say the above statements on Trout and Rizzo while also approving Machado and Goldy? How am I now the guy who has to fix past bad decisions by the Tab? How do you compare a 2B to an OF? What other OF has ever gotten more than I’m offering? Sorry, but I can’t hamstring my roster here, but also can’t let these guys go. I made strong offers given position eligibility and the market, I need better and more detailed feedback than something along the lines of ....it doesn’t feel right. Your re-signing the top player in ALL OF BASEBALL who is entering his prime (26). Saying you should get a discount b/c he will be 30-31 at the end won't hold water. You don't have to re-sign them can take your chances in open free agency if you want too. I am sure both will get probably more than what is being said here. 2018 ProjTrout .307/ 1.026 117 R 38 HR 96 RBI 22 SB (26 YO) Goldy .303/.964 106 R 32 HR 109 RBI 19 SB (30 YO) -- $12,000,000 Altuve .330/.925 106 R 24 HR 83 RBI 32 SB (27 YO) -- $15,00,000 Machado .294/.865 97 R 35 HR 99 RBI 10 SB (25 YO) -- $12,000,000 AVG = Altuve OPS = Trout R = Trout HR = Trout RBI = Goldy SB = Altuve
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Post by NY Yankees GM (Jerry) on Feb 3, 2018 20:27:40 GMT -6
I will give you the list of the rankings from ESPN and Fantrax, the top of both list is your player. If you do not think Trout is one of or The top player in the ML's I do not understand.
We are trying to value players based on their abilities nothing more. Not sure why you are saying the #1 player is not worth what we are asking.
Fantrax ESPN Rank AGE POS. RANK 1 1. Mike Trout 26 OF OF-1 4 2. Jose Altuve 27 2B 2B-1 2 3. Paul Goldschmidt 30 1B 1B-1 5 4. Nolan Arenado 26 3B 3B-1 3 5. Mookie Betts 25 OF OF-2 6 6. Bryce Harper 25 OF OF-3 7 7. Trea Turner 24 SS SS-1 9 8. Charlie Blackmon 31 OF OF-4 15 9. Carlos Correa 23 SS SS-2 ? 10. Clayton Kershaw 30 SP SP-1 10 11. Giancarlo Stanton 28 OF OF-5 ? 12. Max Scherzer 33 SP SP-2 14 13. Kris Bryant 26 3B 3B-2 11 14. Manny Machado 25 3B 3B-3 18 15. Joey Votto 34 1B 1B-2
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Post by RaysGM on Feb 3, 2018 20:52:07 GMT -6
Who asked for a discount? He's #1, but let's not count position eligibility everywhere but here. My comps were #2 and #11(with SS eligibility likely who somehow got in just before you all decided to up the market). I'm hardly comparing apples to oranges.
Here's the thing, I've loved being in this league for many years, I've found this resign process odd because there's an inherent conflict of interest having owners vote on an outcome that can benefit themselves if it goes against the owner of the player. Not saying that's happening, it's just a really weird system.
At a cap that has been the same for years, there is no way to say with a straight face I should re-sign anyone, let alone an OF for $15 mil per for 5 years while also telling me my exact comp with Rizzo is too low and I need to pay him like a 1B1 and think I can possibly compete in this league. Even at what I'm offering for both guys, it's gonna be hard and I'm already putting Price and Herrera back into free agency. So I have no idea what to do with all this, and I'd urge the TAB to think hard about the market conditions being created here. You can't reset a market and keep the cap flat. Altuves contract makes no sense if you look at the past 3 seasons of resigns, so he's not the market. Goldy, Machado, Stanton,... guys like that do not support a higher offer than I've made here.
I'd have gotten it if you asked for $500k more per year or something like that, but to act like I was way off base and essential imply I was trying to cheap out on these resigns is absurd. Look at your own history of approvals. Trouts great, but so are all the other top 10 players in baseball and we have direct comps with many of them.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 3, 2018 20:59:20 GMT -6
If you don't think the best player in baseball is worth being paid the top amount I guess there isn't really anything more to say here. Your re-signing the #1 player in baseball his pos does not really matter that much. He is entering his prime years at 26.
We have been working on a different system that takes it sort of out of hands but it never got past discussion phase maybe it will for next year.
Would we rather have a system where we don't have to sit here and vote on offers? Sure. But I am sure even a new system that reduces that will have people questioning our integrity too. I take my job here very seriously and I have never and would never ever put my team ahead of the league in any way whatsoever to say otherwise is ludicrous.
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Post by RaysGM on Feb 3, 2018 23:07:16 GMT -6
Marlins, I want to be clear I'm not questioning your integrity, just pointing out the flaw in our system. I know you've advocated a different system and are working on making that happen in another league, which I appreciate.
I also want to be clear that this is the 3rd highest re-sign offer in the history of the league from what I can tell. #1 was Altuve, which I cannot find any rationale to support, it should have been denied as too high. It also did not set any precedent in looking at other resigns. #2 was Cabrera at merely $50k more per year than my offer. He was at the time possibly the greatest hitter in baseball history and the cap was the same as today. It was also a much shorter deal. Nobody aside from the Altuve signing has ever offered a contract totaling $65 million.
I'd like to get off the narrative that I somehow fail to recognize Trouts prowess or that I've so incredibly underbid. It's just not supported by any facts.
More importantly, re-signs are inherently different than free agency for a reason. It's essential to keeping teams competitive with young talent. There's a reason MLB has rules in place to prevent free agency too soon or players going from $300k to $13 mil in one offseason. I'll never change anyone who has already posted on this threads minds about Trouts value, but I'd urge the TAB to take the circumstances that led to this discussion seriously. As a longtime active owner, my level of frustration here should be a sign of league health. Increasing the cap and/or changing player ownership rules should be evaluated for the leagues long term health.
If I didn't care about the league, I wouldn't be pushing back so hard here.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 3, 2018 23:44:53 GMT -6
Cap isn't going up $100,000,000 is already very reasonable and rule isn't changing this year.
You have 3 attempts how far you want to ultimately push this in regards to risking losing Trout will be your call. You also don't have to go 5 yrs you could go shorter in hope rule changes. I don't know tough call.
Big difference between MCab and Trout is age Miggy wasn't 26 when re-signed.
Was Altuve a little high? Maybe. I didn't actually vote on it and Altuve owner made that his initial offer. Is that something to consider as much as Goldy maybe being a little low? Possibly.
I will probably need to compare stats of Altuve vs Trout to see how they truly stack up at similar age might do that before I cast my official vote.
I can't speak for others but I take everything said into account not just past re-signs or trying to predict the future I try to take all elements into account then make best decision I can it won't always be popular but it's hard to always please everyone.
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Post by NY Yankees GM (Jerry) on Feb 4, 2018 5:14:44 GMT -6
To be candid ReSigns are the hardest part of being a LM, we have 6 or 7 of them to make sure 3 decisions do not make the rules. I wanted the new ReSign values added to this league but we couldn’t get it implemented this year, so we are using the old way. I don’t think position eligibility makes any difference in the values of the top 10 or so players, but your concern about pricing is duly noted. As Joey said if this claimed is denied you still have 2 more attempts, take your offer up slowly.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 4, 2018 8:47:48 GMT -6
Here are the Top 5 Re-Signed Hitters Under New Rule by Salary, the offer to Trout was 5-Yrs/$13 Mil
1. Jose Altuve - $15 MIL 2. Robinson Cano - $14.5 MIL 3. Miguel Cabrera - $13.05 MIL TROUT OFFER FIT HERE $13 MIL 4. Andrew McCutchen - $12.5 MIL 5t. Chris Davis - $12 MIL 5t. Troy Tulowitzki - $12 MIL 5t. Manny Machado - $12 MIL 5t. Carlos Gonzalez - $12 MIL 5t. Paul Goldschmidt - $12 MIL
I think we can agree maybe that Mike Trout at 26 is likely better than them all and should be paid as such as he is just now entering his prime years. Maybe Altuve and Cano got paid too much that is something we have to weigh as well. Was the bar set too high.
Lets compare Altuve Vs Trout the 3-prev yrs before re-sign
STAT Altuve Vs Trout 3-Yr AVG GM 158 Vs 144 (Trout played in just 111 GM last yr would be 158 from 2014-2016) AVG .330 Vs .306 OPS .857 Vs 1.017 R 93 Vs 106 HR 15 Vs 34 RBI 73 Vs 87 SB 41 Vs 21
The real question is did we mess up on Altuve and allow him to go for too much and thus set a bad high bar which was 500K more than Cano go at his career peak? I think that might be something that we have to discuss as a TAB maybe even before we conclude attempt #1 so we have a better idea moving forward that way we can see if we need to adjust anything based off it.
In reality I hope this is the last year of this current system and we can take it out of anyone's hands in the future it would lessen the stress on the TAB and probably GMs too.
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Post by RaysGM on Feb 4, 2018 9:33:58 GMT -6
Just a quick thanks for engaging in the topic with me and each other. My intention was never to frustrate anyone. Although there is an element of selfishness on my part to advocate for my roster, my main goal here was much more about the system and league health.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 4, 2018 9:42:08 GMT -6
Just a quick thanks for engaging in the topic with me and each other. My intention was never to frustrate anyone. Although there is an element of selfishness on my part to advocate for my roster, my main goal here was much more about the system and league health. I always knew that Mike Trout and Bryce Harper would be coming in 2017 which would make for some really interesting re-signs because of the type of players they are as both are just entering their prime years at 25-26. The problem with the current system is we have to set bars and then other players have to be compared to the bars set right or wrong that is just the way this has to work and unless you have been a TAB member you (general you not you Rays per say) can't really understand the stress that is put on us to try and get this right we are not always going to be right and GMs will not always agree with us but we are simply trying to do what we feel is right for the league. Guys like Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are rare special talents in hitting the free agency market before they have gotten out of their primes that is so rare. Part of why we give teams 3 attempts is because we want to give GMs every chance to re-sign their core guys. In the end they have to decide if they are willing to pay the amount that has been laid out by past re-sign in establishing the value or not fairly or otherwise. Maybe in future we will have a system where its less arbitrary and more here is what so and so gets paid based off so and so pick the # of years.
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 5, 2018 13:58:49 GMT -6
I think there is a lot of stuff here for Rays to consider with his next 1-2 offers on Trout.
I think the important to thing to remember in regard to re-signs is after 1-yr they can be traded that is not always the case in some leagues so that is a great advantage here when re-signing a guy.
With that said, we seem to have hit the lull in discussion so I will go ahead and end this attempt.
DENIED #3
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