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Post by Red Sox GM (Rob L) on Feb 10, 2018 18:25:15 GMT -6
Old Contract - $300,000 (2017) New Contract - $11,000,000 (2020)
Using comps - Machado $12,000,000 and Donaldson at $11,500,000
Blackmon has boosted his HRs in recent years but lost the SBs from 2014-2015. He still remains a top fantasy player but is highly dependent on Coors Field
1) Blackmon is a real life free agent after the 2018 season and is a much worse hitter away from Coors Field. 2017 home OPS of 1.239; away OPS of .784. Career home OPS of .972 with career away OPS of .740. Donaldson career home/away .890/.867
2) Machado and Donaldson both play premium positions - SS and 3B. If we did LF/CF/RF, then Blackmon's CF eligibility would be worth more than just the plain OF
3) Ages - Machado is 25 while Blackmon is 31 and Donaldson is 32 (and got 3 years), so 3 years seems appropriate for Blackmon
If Blackmon re-signed to play in Coors for the duration, I would recommend Donaldson level or above but below Machado. Since there is a significant chance that he leaves Coors next year and becomes league average, I think below Donaldson is the correct level. Also, it seems like I went too high last year with Altuve at $15m, so I'll be a little more conservative on this one.
Rob
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Post by NY Yankees GM (Jerry) on Feb 10, 2018 19:08:38 GMT -6
Denied #1 I agree that Blackmon is one of the best OF in the ML but there are to many position players resigning over 11M that are older and as good. I am thinking that a salary of at least 12M will be needed.
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Post by Mariners GM (Tyler) on Feb 10, 2018 20:50:47 GMT -6
I don't think we can assume that Blackmon leaves Coors. 3B isn't a premium position and SS is just as stacked as anything else this year with all the young good talent. So I don't think that this argument holds water. We also have to be aware of the fact that Machado and Donaldson are both coming off down years so their value was a little lower while Blackmon is coming off a monster year with 137 R, 104 RBI, 37 HR, .331 AVG and still chipping in 14 SB. Yes the speed has declined but this steal count is nothing to sneeze at.
To compare him to some outfielders, Trout just got $15M and Harper got $14M. Blackmon puts up similar (if not better) production just happens to be 6 years older. In 2016 Giancarlo Stanton was signed to an $11M and this was when his career highs were 37 HR, 105 RBI, 89 R, and .290 AVG. Again he was younger but the difference in length of contract makes up the difference when you consider how good Blackmon has been and how much better his numbers are than Stanton's (to that point).
I'll agree with Jerry that it needs to be at least $12M.
Denied #2 (0-2)
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Post by Marlins GM (Joey) on Feb 11, 2018 8:02:11 GMT -6
Going to agree with the others esp on a 3-yr deal instead 4 or 5 yrs. There is much less risk in a 3-yr deal which would take Blackmon to mid 30s instead of late 30s.
Funny thing about these Rockies OFers is a lot of people said the same of Corey Dickerson that he would fail outside of Coors too
2016 TB .245/.761 57 R 24 HR 70 RBI 0/2 2017 TB .282/.815 84 R 27 HR 84 RBI 4/7
Its really hard to know IF Blackmon left Colorado if he would struggle or if it would make the adjustment like Dickerson has its part of the risk when a guy is entering a walk year in RL.
But I do think your first offer was really close.
Denied #3
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